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jmc

counting and probability senior

Problem

Max has a spinner that lands on 1 with a probability of , lands on 2 with a probability of , lands on 3 with a probability of , and lands on 4 with a probability of . If Max spins the spinner, and then Zack spins the spinner, then what is the probability that Max gets a larger number than Zack does?
Solution
Let be the probability we are looking for and be the probability that they both spin the same number. By symmetry, it's clear that the probability of Zack getting a larger number than Max does is also equal to . Furthermore, all possible outcomes can be divided into three categories: Max gets a larger number than Zack does, Max and Zack get the same number, or Zack gets a larger number than Max. The sum of the probabilities of these three events is 1, which gives us the equation .

We can calculate with a little bit of casework. There are four ways in which they can both get the same number: if they both get 1's, both get 2's, both get 3's or both get 4's. The probability of getting a 1 is , so the probability that they will both spin a 1 is . Similarly, the probability of getting a 2 is , so the probability that they will both spin a 2 is . The probability of getting a 3 is , so the probability that they will both get a 3 is and the probability that they will both get a 4 is . This gives us Substituting this into gives us , so .
Final answer
\dfrac{47}{144}