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jmc

counting and probability senior

Problem

Let , , and be the vertices of a regular tetrahedron each of whose edges measures 1 meter. A bug, starting from vertex , observes the following rule: at each vertex it chooses one of the three edges meeting at that vertex, each edge being equally likely to be chosen, and crawls along that edge to the vertex at its opposite end. Let be the probability that the bug is at vertex when it has crawled exactly 7 meters. Find the value of .
Solution
Let denote the probability that the bug is at after it has crawled meters. Since the bug can only be at vertex if it just left a vertex which is not , we have . We also know , so we can quickly compute , , , , , and , so the answer is . One can solve this recursion fairly easily to determine a closed-form expression for .
Final answer
182