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jmc

counting and probability senior

Problem

The Lakers are playing the Celtics in the NBA finals. To win the NBA finals, a team must win 4 games before the other team does. If the Celtics win each game with probability and there are no ties, what is the probability that the Lakers will win the NBA finals but that the contest will need all seven games to be decided? Express your answer as a fraction.
Solution
For the contest to go to 7 games, the teams must be tied 3-3 after 6 games. There are ways to pick which 3 of the 6 games the Lakers will win. Then there is a chance that they will win the 3 games we pick and lose the other 3. So there is a chance that the contest becomes tied 3-3. Then, there is a chance that the Lakers win the last game. So the final probability is .
Final answer
\frac{160}{2187}