jmc

Let us first call the point where the $x$-axis intersects side $\overline{AB}$ point $E$ and where it intersects $\overline{CD}$ point $F$. Now, since the $x$-axis is parallel to bases $\overline{AD}$ and $\overline{BC}$ of the parallelogram, $\overline{EF}$ is parallel to the two bases and splits parallelogram $ABCD$ into two smaller parallelograms $AEFD$ and $EBCF$. Since the height of each of these parallelograms is $3$ and the length of their bases equals $AD=BC=6$, both parallelograms must have the same area. Half of parallelogram $ABCD$'s area is above the $x$-axis and half is below, so there is a $\boxed{\frac{1}{2}}$ probability that the point selected is not above the $x$-axis.